Path Dependance: History Shapes Outcomes
What the QWERTY keyboard, town planning, and the standard railway gauge have to do with how we build things
History shapes outcomes
Path dependency is a concept in economics that explains how historical choices and established systems can influence present and future decisions, often leading to resistance to change. It can be seen across various fields, from technology to urban planning. I believe it helps frame a very frustrating and common question in the construction industry: why is it so bloody hard scale technology?
“The general model for this impact comes from economics and is called path dependence, meaning that the set of decisions, or paths, available to you now is dependent on your past decisions.” - Gabriel Weinberg
In this article we will look at examples and consider whether this is an effective framework to think about some of the issues we have in adopting technology in our industry.
To get there, we’ll first explore:
Why we all use a QWERTY keyboard;
What makes our towns take the form they do, and;
Who chose the standard railway gauge.
The QWERTY Keyboard
The QWERTY keyboard is THE prime example of path dependency. Designed in the 19th century to prevent typewriter jams when typing, its layout persists today despite the advent of more efficient alternatives like the Dvorak Simplified Keyboard. The widespread adoption of QWERTY created a network effect where users, typists, and manufacturers became entrenched in its use. This historical lock-in demonstrates how initial conditions and early decisions can cement a technology’s dominance, making it challenging to transition to superior solutions.
Town Planning
Town planning illustrates path dependency through the design and layout of urban areas. Historical decisions about road networks, zoning, and public transportation routes shape modern towns and cities, often due to the traditional industry of the area. These historical choices often constrain efforts to redesign cities to accommodate new socioeconomic drivers, or issues like traffic congestion.
Example: Stanley, Co.Durham
My hometown is Stanley, Co.Durham - in the North-East of England. This is a coal mining village (scene of the 1909 West Stanley Pit Disaster) which offers a vivid example of path dependence in town planning. During the Industrial Revolution, Stanley's development was heavily influenced by its coal mining industry* . The village's layout, infrastructure, and economy were designed to support mining operations, with narrow streets, terraced housing for workers, and limited public spaces. These early decisions created a deeply entrenched structure that persists in the town to this day.
*(I’m very proud of this hardworking heritage. My grandad was a miner)
As coal industry struggled and then declined in the area, Stanley faced significant challenges, such as economic decline, unemployment, and inadequate infrastructure for new industries. The historical focus on mining left the village with limited flexibility to adapt to modern its needs. Whilst there were and are efforts to diversify the economy and redevelop the area, the legacy of its industrial past continues to shape its present, demonstrating how initial conditions and early choices can lock a community into a particular developmental trajectory that is difficult to change. (Despite this glooming picture I still love to visit my family in Stanley. I’d highly recommend Beamish Museum!)
Standard Railway Gauge
The standard railway gauge, set at 4 feet 8.5 inches (1435mm in new money), is another case of path dependency. This measurement originated from the gauge used for horse-drawn wagons. or perhaps even roman chariots, and was adopted by early railway pioneers. As rail networks expanded, the standard gauge became entrenched, creating compatibility across regions and countries. Despite the potential benefits of alternative gauges for different types of rail transport, the existing infrastructure and investment in the standard gauge create significant barriers to change. This example underscores how initial technological choices can create long-lasting industry standards that resist modification.
How to recognise path dependence
Hopefully you’ve picked up some similarities in the examples given above. To be clear, a system (e.g. an institution or a technology) can be shown to have path dependency by identifying the following three elements:
Element of Contingency: Path dependency is established when it is shown that initial conditions or contingencies led to a specific outcome over viable (or improved) alternatives, emphasising the role of chance in the selection process.
Insulation from Change: Path dependent systems become resistant to change due to feedback loops which support the current state and hinder alternative approaches.
Potential for Change: Despite the resistance, change within a path dependent system is possible by identifying contradictions or problems that may eventually lead to the adoption of new policies or technologies.
Path Dependency in the Construction Industry
“We’ve always done it this way” is like the war cry of our industry. Whilst incredibly frustrating, when viewed with path dependence in mind it becomes very understandable. There is very little incentive to change, and significant consequences if things go wrong.
Getting to the root of the problem
The risk environment may be the underlying cause but specific root-causes of path dependency in construction are:
1. Ingrained Practices and Standards: The industry relies heavily on established construction methods, materials, and building codes that have been developed and refined over decades.
2. High Capital Investment: Significant investments have been made in existing infrastructure, machinery, and tools, creating financial inertia against adopting new technologies.
3. Complex Regulatory Environment: Current regulations and safety standards are designed around traditional methods, making the integration of new technologies a slow and cumbersome process.
4. Workforce Training and Skills: The construction workforce is predominantly trained in conventional methods, and there is resistance to retraining due to the time and effort required.
5. Risk Aversion: The high stakes involved in construction projects lead to a conservative approach, with firms preferring to stick with known and reliable methods.
Leaving the path: a road to change
There are ways to escape path dependence. In general they are as follows:
Understand path dependency, recognise the issues with the current path, and the benefits of better ways of working through open communication
Incentivise change and/or ensure there are consequences for not changing. Reward innovative behaviours
Carry out change gradually, maybe in a series of steps or ‘nudges’
Ensure training and support is in place aligned to the desired outcomes
Make structural changes to the organisation where necessary, consider employing professional change managers.
Are there any other actions you would add to the list? Let’s discuss in the comments. Click the link below so you can start a discussion.
Acting Locally: Breaking Path Dependance on construction projects
There’s plenty of scope for action on the local scale on your projects. After all, these too suffer from path dependance and lock-in.
A regional planning manager in Scotland coined a phrase on a recent project - we must “learn to turn the oil tanker” when trying to implement BIM and Digital Engineering. I think what he meant is that once a project is moving, the scale and momentum makes it incredibly difficult to introduce new ways of working - including digital tools.
The danger here is that the decisions made early create an impediment to more effective methods later. So we must:
Start as you mean to go on
Make it easy
Monitor compliance
Start as you mean to go on
The answer is both simple and difficult. We must make as much time as possible to consider our approach, taking care that choices in the present don’t prohibit us later - or “don’t paint yourself into a corner”. What’s difficult is that we often don’t have the luxury of time and we don’t have a crystal ball.
It may be useful to keep the following in mind when making decisions:
“Some decisions are consequential and irreversible or nearly irreversible – one-way doors – and these decisions must be made methodically, carefully, slowly, with great deliberation and consultation. If you walk through and don’t like what you see on the other side, you can’t get back to where you were before. We can call these Type 1 decisions. But most decisions aren’t like that – they are changeable, reversible – they’re two-way doors. If you’ve made a suboptimal Type 2 decision, you don’t have to live with the consequences for that long. You can reopen the door and go back through. Type 2 decisions can and should be made quickly by high judgment individuals or small groups.“ Jeff Bezos
Early engagement with all stakeholders, including Information Management, BIM, and Digital Engineering professionals, is critical to ensure that there is an inclusive view with trusted partners to help guide decision making.
Make it Easy
Complexity in BIM and Information Management is rampant. Often completely unnecessarily. A discussion on why this is, and who benefits, is outside the scope of this post - but I’ve seen examples across the industry.
The lesson I’ve learned is not to overcomplicate things, ensure everything has a purpose, and ensure that all relevant stakeholder needs are considered. There is no use implementing a bells and whistles approach if it will fly over the heads of those which we set out to help in the first place.
By making things more difficult than they ought to be we push people back to what they know and understand, what comes easy to them. Keep it simple, silly.
Monitor Compliance
Left unchecked, bad habits don’t take long to become business as usual. This is why early compliance monitoring is essential to ensure that standards and practices are fully embedded. Tackling issues before they become engrained.
Monitoring will also inform continuous improvement in the use, training, and support of the tools and systems on the project.
Feedback
Does knowledge of path dependency give you some firmer ground from which to start solving issues? Or is this not a new concept to you? I’d love to discuss either way. Send me a message with the button below so we can discuss your thoughts.
Wrapping Up
Path dependency helps to explain why industries like ours struggle to adopt to change. The QWERTY keyboard, town planning, and the standard railway gauge highlight how historical choices create entrenched systems which are resistant to change.
In construction we require a strategic approach that addresses the deep-rooted causes of change resistance. By understanding path dependence, recognising its impact, and establishing effective actions the industry will overcome its historical inertia.
Now we’ve reached the end of this post, I hope you now feel that gaining an understanding of these dynamics will be helpful to address resistance in the construction industry.
Note: I used the following three resources heavily in researching and writing this post, they were incredibly helpful to my understanding:
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