Beyond Path Dependance: the Lindy Effect and its impact on innovation in construction
Balancing innovation with tradition in construction industry practices.
Walk onto almost any construction site today, and you're likely to see rolls of paper drawings being carried around by engineers and tradespeople. In fact a recent report suggests that 72% construction SME are still largely paper based (Construction National - Digital Hesitance).
In an age of smart phones, cloud platforms, digital models, and instant communication, this reliance on outdated methods is a stark reminder of how the construction industry often clings to the past. Why is it that things often seem to stand still in terms of what, when, and how things are done?
Historical decisions have a profound influence on practices we see today, often locking industries into inefficient systems. This phenomenon, explored in depth in my earlier article on Path Dependence, shows how the past constrains the future:
However, not all historical practices are problematic. Another principle is also at play.
The Lindy Effect suggests that longevity often signals durability and value, and offers a contrasting lens with which you can view tradition.
This article explores how these two forces interact, investigating how construction can innovate whilst respecting the practices that have stood the test of time.
Path Dependence in Context
Path dependence, as previously discussed, illustrates how decisions like standardising procurement processes or adhering to legacy workflows shape the industry’s present and future. While these systems provide stability, they also reinforce resistance to change, particularly when trying to adopt new practices and technologies such as Building Information Modelling (BIM), Modern Methods of Construction, and data-informed approaches.
Rather than repeating the examples of QWERTY keyboards and railway gauges, you can apply the same lens to modern challenges.
For instance, the preference for traditional procurement processes, often characterised by fragmented responsibilities and adversarial relationships, can hinder project success. This can result in costly delays, overspending due to poor coordination, and disputes that erode value and strain relationships. Even though collaborative approaches like Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) offer a more streamlined and efficient alternative, the industry often defaults to familiar, yet inefficient, mechanisms.
The persistence of these systems reflects both historical inertia and the challenges of introducing new approaches.
What is the Lindy Effect?
The Lindy Effect suggests that the longer a practice or idea has been around the more likely it is to remain relevant where it doesn’t have an unavoidable life expectancy (“non-perishable” items).
“the Lindy effect proposes the longer a period something has survived to exist or be used in the present, the longer its remaining life expectancy.” Wikipedia
It applies to timeless concepts like structural engineering principles or enduring materials such as concrete.
Structural Engineering: Refined over centuries of building and experimentation, the principles of structural engineering continue to inform modern designs. From ancient arches to modern skyscrapers, the fundamental understanding of load distribution and material properties has stood the test of time.
Concrete: Used for centuries in structures like the Pantheon, has proven its durability and adaptability.
What the Lindy Effect Teaches Us
The Lindy Effect shifts our perspective on tradition in construction. It suggests that some practices persist not due to inertia, but because they work. For example:
Modular construction: While seemingly a modern trend, it has roots stretching back centuries. From prefabricated housing used to quickly rebuild after World War II to today's sophisticated modular hospitals and schools, this approach thrives because of its inherent adaptability, scalability, and potential for quality control.
Materials: Common construction materials persist because they are well understood known entities and are easy to design and work with.
While the Lindy Effect highlights durable practices, it also encourages scepticism toward fleeting trends. For instance, many digital solutions fail to address core business needs and vanish as quickly as they appear. Lindy-compatible innovations balance novelty with proven business value.
Merging Stability and Innovation
While Path Dependance explains why outdated methods persist, the Lindy Effect helps us identify which traditions are worth preserving. Together, they provide a nuanced approach to balancing innovation and stability. As complementary frameworks this helps us:
Retain durable systems: BIM, despite slow adoption, shows promise as a long-term innovation due to its growing maturity and adaptability. Especially in the wake of growing Digital Twin use cases across industries requiring graphical representation and managed data.
Challenge what doesn’t work: Practices like rigid project delivery models need replacement, not preservation, to enable new ways of working.
By merging these frameworks, you can balance the reliability of enduring systems with the flexibility required to innovate.
Breaking Inertia
To overcome harmful path dependence, you can:
Encourage collaboration: Building a culture of shared ownership is key to overcoming resistance to change. This can be achieved through interoperable systems that facilitate seamless data exchange between different stakeholders.
Start small: Proving ROI with limited-scale pilots allows teams to build confidence in new approaches.
Build on strengths: Lean principles focus on eliminating waste while enhancing the processes already proven to work.
These strategies build trust in innovation while respecting the industry’s reliance on stability.
Key Takeaways
Not all traditions are obstacles; some are cornerstones. Similarly, not all innovation is progress; some of it is noise.
By filtering potential innovations through the Lindy Effect and questioning entrenched practices, the industry can evolve without abandoning its foundations. The nuance and challenge lies not in rejecting the past wholesale, but in discerning what to retain, what to discard, and what to improve upon.
The construction industry faces a choice: will it innovate wisely, or remain tethered to outdated practices? The answer lies in blending the wisdom of history with the potential of progress.
The time to act is now.
The tools for transformation are within reach. The question is: how will we use them?
Great piece.
I remember coming across the idea of the Lindy Effect in Nassim Taleb’s ‘Skin in the game.’ Completely changed the way I judged the tradition vs progress dilemma.
Sometimes, there’s a reason certain principles have stood the test of time.